Scrimmages In Trouble This Weekend !!

Hey

 

The Real Guru

Guru is actually Mark Mathis from Fox-18....lol

 

Weather man

There is only 1 weather man (Obama)

 

The glass is half full.

 

Cut-Off Low To Dominate Diamond !!

FROM GREENVILLE / SPARTANBURG NWS:


FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...POTENT SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO INVOF LWR MS VALLEY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO STALL JUST N OF THE CWFA FRI NGT...THEN
PUSH SWD AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. A WAVE IS SHOWN ON ALL
THE GUIDANCE...AND TRACKS W TO E ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE GULF
STATES TO SC. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS ON QPF ASSOC WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF. I UPPED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS FROM W TO E. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE NAM KEEPS THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SAT
EVE...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BNDRY THRU GREENWOOD COUNTY BY 18-21Z
SAT. I MADE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
QPF COULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PER LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE...THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW IS NOW LIKELY TO NOT BE PHASED WITH THE NRN STREAM
ENERGY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
REALLY SPELLS TROUBLE WRT OUR FCST...AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOTS OF
LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH.
ALSO...COLDER AIR WILL BE NOT TOO FAR TO THE N WHEN THIS SYSTEM
REACHES THE AREA. THE SFC LOW REACHES THE SC COAST...BUT DOESN/T
MOVE TOO FAST. SO WE ARE PROGGED TO BE UNDER STRONG Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOR A GOOD 24 HOURS OR MORE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK
WILL BE WHERE THE LLVL FORCING (FGEN) AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN.
AND THESE DETAILS ARE JUST NOT IRONED OUT YET. SO I BLENDED THE NEW
GUIDANCE IN...AND KEEP POP A BIT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP...SO ELEVATIONS OVER 3500 FT ESP COULD SEE
SOME ACCUM. IF THE 00Z ECMWF VERIFIES...THE VALLEYS AND PIEDMONT MAY
SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE SUNDAY IN A DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOC W/
THE UPR LOW.

&&

QPF-- Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
ECMWF--- EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL---THE MOST MODERN DAY ACCURATE WEATHER FORECAST

 

WOW

Here's a guy that missed his calling! Guru just use your powers and give us a more accurate forecast. We need softball!!!!!!!!!!

 

Update - It Gets Worse !!!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
931 AM EST THU FEB 26 2009

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2009 - 12Z THU MAR 05 2009

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS OVER OFF/OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS SANDWICH A
CENTRAL US MEAN RIDGE...ALL UNDERNEATH BLOCKY AND COMPLEX NRN
STREAM FLOW FROM CANADA THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC.



...ERN US...

A DOMINANT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CLUSTER FAVORS A CLOSED SE
US LOW THIS WEEKEND. THE DYNAMICS AND SEPARATION FROM NRN STREAM
PHASING ALONG WITH AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGING AND DOWNSTREAM
HIGHER LATITUDE BLOCKING SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A DEEPENING
AND SLOWLY LIFTING COASTAL LOW UP OFF THE ERN SEABOARD SUN-WED.
THIS LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD MOISTURE CONDUIT FROM THE ATLANTIC
WHILE COLD AIR FEEDS/HOLDS TO THE NORTH AND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
AS POWERED BY STRONG/DAMMED NERN US/ERN CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE DETAILS OF TRACK AND LOW-LEVEL FOCUS REMAIN QUITE
UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FLOW SEEMS HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
A SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED WINTER COASTAL STORM EVENT WITH BROAD
AND POTENT ERN SEABOARD AND MARINE IMPACT. THIS MAY INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND ICE FROM THE INTERIOR SERN US TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NEW ENG. IN THIS PATTERN...THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
SEPARATE AND CLOSED LOW MUCH INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD GIVEN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS. ACCORDINGLY...IN AN EFFORT TO
MITIGATE LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OPTED TO BASE THE
UPDATED HPC PROGS ON A VARIED BLEND OF 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN
AND 06 UTC GFS. THE 06 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
FARTHER SOUTHWARD HELD CLUSTER FROM THE OTHER MODELS AS COMPARED
TO THE 00 UTC GFS RUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHICHTEL

 

GURU Jack of all Trades Master of .......... well you can fill in the blanks !!!!

I tried to get him (GURU) to run for Prez. with Storm030 as a running mate and all they want to do is play fastpitch imagine that !!!!!!!!

 

WEATHER IT'S TRUE OR NOT?

Chances are we will have weather & like John Fagala once said, "a day without sunshine, well, it's kinda like night. "

 

Guru

In English please