Computer rankings of NC's travel ball teams

All very good questions.

W-L record is not what drives the ratings. It is very sensitive to strength of schedule. If the upper-echelon teams are totally segregated from lower-echelon teams, then you would be correct. And this early in the season, there are islands of teams that are segregated, and the computer can't tell the difference between them, 6U t-ball and the University of Oklahoma at this point.

But as the season goes on, those upper and lower teams will intermingle enough so that it will sort itself out. That doesn't mean the best team in the state has to play a lower-echelon team. The comparisons can be indirect. If #1 plays #10 this week, and #10 plays #20 next week, and #20 played #40 next month, and #40 plays #80, you have indirect comparisons.

What you say about playing the top teams in the South may create problems because we'll never get all the scores in the country. So games against the Atlanta Vipers can't be appreciated except to the extent that Vipers might've played another NC team, and comparisons would be made on that.

However, you don't have to play much in N.C. to get a fair rating, and you don't necessarily have to perform well - as long as you play the top N.C. teams.

Here's an example - We experimented with these ratings a year ago (unpublished) for the 14U division only. We couldn't find all the scores. Got maybe 60-75 percent of what was out there. Maybe more, but not all. Got all the scores for some teams, not others.

The model did a pretty good job of sorting out strength of schedule after a full spring and summer. Renzi's NC Challengers team played quite a bit of 16U (which we didn't use) and played out of state (which we didn't use). Found only seven N.C. results for that team. They went 4-3. However, they were ranked No. 7 out of some 150 teams on the basis of those seven games because it was an ASA qualifier and the ASA state tournament (iirc). The Denver Dazzle was #11 despite a 9-11 record. There was another team that I won't name that was ranked #95 despite a 10-6 record. Another team was 17-4 and ranked only 29th.

One concern I do have is the fact that there isn't much interaction between one age division and another. Could be that playing up won't help you as much as it should. But that remains to be seen. It worked pretty well last year in 14U when we didn't consider results when playing up. I'm curious to see how it plays out.

Do appreciate the questions. And as you picked up on, the point of these ratings are to make the game more enjoyable and to give fans more of a statewide look at what's out there. If nothing else, it's a nice roster of all TB teams in the state.

 

There also was the question of HS vs. 18U and 16U.

It might be better to separate them eventually. But now, there aren't a lot of 18U and 16U tournaments being played that separates the two. Perhaps that will be different once high school ball ends.

For teams that play entirely showcase schedules, or play out of state almost entirely in regional and national events, it remains to be seen if those teams can be rated fairly. I did give the example of the NC Challengers last year. So it doesn't take much, but you do have to have some N.C. results. Will have to wait and see. An effort will be made to track down their results. I'm not perfectly sure what a typical schedule looks like for the Carolina Cardinals 18U Gold or a team like that.

What I don't want to do is having ratings that presume that one team is the best in the state when somebody else is better but didn't play any N.C. teams. I would certainly make that point so as not to slight some team that finishes 3rd at ASA nationals.

 

Just one more point: this is getting good.
Just think what North Carolina Travel softball would look like if we didn't have so many teams. The pot is so deluded that every team out their has 2 to 3 really good ball players. If you look at the 5 to 9 hitters on most teams, it's painful. Unfortunately, due to so much quibble on teams, it leads to more teams. If you want to be a powerhouse in NC, the best way to do it is to combine multiple teams. An example of this our the Wildcats and Cardinals combined and became the Wildcards. They are solid from top to bottom. No, I do not have a daughter that plays for them, I know what you were thinking.

High and tight or in your ear = HATOIYE

 

Can't help but imagine how great it would be if the teams in this particular age group formed leagues and competed against each other.

Or they put on their own invitational tournament(s) to decide who is really #1.

Great job!!

 

The Aunt Bee Invitational. Top 16 teams in the final rankings. I like it!!

 

Amen on being deluded I agree 100%!