Update: Computer rankings of NC's travel teams (April 1)

Maybe talk to the folks over at Grand Slam in Raleigh about keeping your lists posted on their display boards. Everybody goes there.

 

I'm counting 314 teams entered in tournaments this weekend in North Carolina. Great to see our sport thriving.

Thanks to all the organizations that give girls a place to play each weekend --

Teams:

ASA - 10
Crystal Carolina Sports - 37
East Coast Sports - 11
GotGame Fastpitch - 7
NSA - 39
TopGun - 133
USSSA - 71
World Fastpitch Connection - 6

 

Hope to have the ratings updated in a couple of days. A TON of games were played, and several new teams will enter the ratings after making their 2014 debuts.

I have 1,334 games in the database and more than 400 teams. Clara Edwards has been helping me enter scores all day.

 

I'm glad to see Crystal Carolina Sports on this list. That group is starting to garner some interest.


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Are these weighted at all?

Going 10-0 in top gun has less value, compared to 5-5 in asa.

 

It's possible, but the computer model is not built that way. That's a good question, though.

The computer model doesn't consider what organization you play. It's not a point system where you get certain points for wins/losses, what type of tournament it is, etc.

Rather, it compares scores an infinite amount of times and provides the best mathematical explanation for the more than 1,200 scores that we now have.

Now, if the same teams played the same organization every week, and those teams were ''isolated,'' then there would be no way to determine how good those ''isolated'' teams are. But most teams play more than one (ASA, USSSA, TopGun, etc.), and that's what allows the computer to make the comparisons.

The earlier the season is, the more likely a team might be able to exploit an easier schedule because certain teams might be ''isolated.'' But all it takes is for a team that finished fifth in Tournament A to run-rule the champion from Tournament B the next week, and then all those teams are connected, and that's what creates the comparisons. Put simply, if in fact ASA has stronger teams than TopGun, then the computer will notice that when teams play the two organizations and adjust.

This model has been used to rate high school football teams, and people will ask if you get more points for winning a game vs. a 4A opponent vs. a 2A opponent. You don't, but the comparison of scores over time will produce the same result - the bigger schools on average will rise to the top. Same will happen here (hopefully).

 

btw, it's also possible to rank the tournament organizations on the strength of their teams. Not sure I want to open that can of works, though.

 

I think using the crossover match ups is a good way to determine this anyway. As you've said, if one organization is stronger than another, the results should reflect it.

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