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Update: Computer rankings of NC's travel teams (June 1)

Discussion in 'Softball Forum' started by Aunt Bee, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. Coach_Tooie

    Coach_Tooie Junior Member

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    03 Clippers

    No love for my 03 Clippers? :) We have 1 more 10u tourney and then we will be full time 12u. Obviously a weaker 12u tournament this past weekend but we are 03's whoopin up on 02's. I'm guessing teams playing up makes it difficult to compare apples to apples. We enjoy the board.
     
  2. Aunt Bee

    Aunt Bee Full Access Member

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    If #11 out of 156 ain't love, it's at least holding hands. :)

    The '03 Clippers are obviously an elite team. What I'm about to say might sound like a criticism, but it's not. Glad you broached this topic because I do get a lot of questions about the effect of playing up or not playing up.

    IMO, there is no advantage or disadvantage to playing up as far as a team's ranking. The computer does not know how old any of the teams are, but it figures out how good they are in relation to each other regardless of age. How old you are doesn't matter to the computer. How good you are matters very much to the computer.

    Here is an interesting fact -- The average 12U team is rated about SEVEN runs higher than the average 10U team. Key point there is ''average.'' A team in the middle of the 12U rankings would threaten to run rule a team in the middle of the 10U. This is not a subjective human judgment, but rather the mathematical conclusion that the computer has made through analyzing thousands of scores thousands of times. As I said, the computer doesn't know how old the teams are.

    However - and this will jolt you - the 10U teams that play in the 12U division have winning records vs. 12U opponents.

    How can that Bee? How can 10U be rated 7 runs weaker than 12U, yet have a winning record vs. 12U?

    It happens because of three reasons, IMO - (1) only the best 10U teams choose to play up; (2) tournament directors underrate teams that play up and place them in easier brackets; (3) teams that play up underrate themselves (or overrate the higher age division) and choose to play in weaker brackets when they would be competitive in the A division.

    So what's happening is that the elite 10U teams are playing the fair-to-middling 12U teams, and they're beating them. And according to the computer, they're supposed to beat them.

    So while the 12U division overall is significantly stronger than 10U, the elite 10U teams would have no trouble playing in the 12U division if they moved up there and stayed. Same for the elite 12U teams playing in 14U. They wouldn't be ranked as highly as they are in their actual age divisions, but they'd hold their own quite well. The proof is in the scores.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2014
  3. The Green Machine

    The Green Machine Junior Member

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    Well said
     
  4. kelcosbo

    kelcosbo Junior Member

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    Hello, I am looking for a team for my 13yr old daughter to try out for. We live in Oregon and will be moving to North Carolina. She has been playing competitive softball for 3 years, before that she played rec softball for about 6 years and next year she wants to play on a 14A team. She is a strong batter and is aggressive at 3rd.. She starts at 3 and pitches when the game calls for it. She is also working with a pitching coach and will soon be working with a fielding coach as well.. The private coaches are not to show her how to do things, but to help improve her skills and show her things that are taught at team practices.
    Any suggestions or contact info would be greatly appreciate.

    [email protected]
    And/or
    [email protected]


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. Aunt Bee

    Aunt Bee Full Access Member

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    Welcome to North Carolina. Where will you be living?

    I think these rankings are a good indication of the level that each of these teams play, which is important because you want to match your player with a team that fits her abilities.

    However, I will caution that just because one team is ranked higher than another doesn't mean it has better coaching or organization. I'd rather play on a team with lesser talent if it means having good teammates and families and coaches who are committed to developing players and treating them well. Just because you're ranked No. 102 doesn't mean you're not doing great work with the kids that you have. So you might have to shop around for a good all-around fit.

    There's a link on this board for teams looking for players. Here are some others -

    NC USSSA 2012 Tournament Schedule

    www.ncasafastpitch.com :: View Forum - Teams Looking For Players
     

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