H.S. Baseball Scene in 2010 ....

Another version of Prediction Central....

We've talked about Club Teams and the impact they have had on legion ball. This is a direct result of the way colleges recruit now.

What's the next generation going to see?

Probably "Scout Teams". Where the club teams cater to the needs of the Colleges/Universities, scout teams will cater to the needs of the pro teams. These will be traveling "club-like" teams, under the umbrella (meaning a little bit of money) of the MLB teams, that travel from city-to-city in-mass and play games. It's won't be a tournament, it will be more of a showcase environment, with pitchers probably going 3-4 innings. These teams will be fairly large and will play wood-bat only, because that's what the pro's want to see.

If you have aspirations of getting drafted out of high school, the scout team will be the direction you will want to go. This will strip away the top level of talent from the existing club-teams. The club teams will still exist and play in their own showcases, but will focus almost exclusively on college exposure.

The Scout Teams will rake the cream of the crop and the club teams will have the next step of talent.

Since Legion will be playing primarily graduated H.S. Seniors (most already committed) and college freshmen the colleges won't have a reason to go to a legion game at all. During the summer, they are working on the rising seniors who they will be trying to sign that fall. Legion will be just one year too old for them.

The pro's, in a cost-saving manner, will allow the scout teams to do their work and follow them from city-to-city. This cuts their scouting costs also while still seeing the better players.

This will put more pressure on the 1 day and short week open showcases, like Impact & Blue-Gray, where players will be initially seen and evaluated. These will continue to grow.

The major combines, like Perfect Game, will continue to thrive. You're going to end up with a 4-tiered baseball structure for the high school player to compete in during the summer/fall months.

1. Scout Teams
2. Club Teams (also known as Showcase teams)
3. Legion ball
4. Rec ball

The speed of this happening? PDQ. You'll see it start in N.C. within 1-2 years at the latest.

 

no high school player should have aspirations of going pro out of high school unless he is going to get a contract that makes him financially sound up to 20 years. If you are good enough to make it to the big leagues, college will be no sweat. If you go to college and fail, you would of failed 2x worse in the minor leagues had you gone pro out of high schoo.. Go to school and get an education and sign after your junior year. Then if you get hurt, you have something to use. And don't give me that "you can go to school in the off season", that does not work. I think your prediction is accurate, but sad.

 

There have been a couple of changes recently, but it's still sad.

The # of HS guys who can make it is very small.... There will be quite of few of the scout teams nation-wide ... maybe 20-25 or so eventually, each with about 30-40 guys. Of these guys, maybe 20 will get taken in the top 100 picks (which is where you need to go if you want financial security). The rest will go on to college.

If you do go and don't make it, another change has come along. You now loose just one year of NCAA eligibility for every year of pro service in Division 2 ball .. you loose all of your eligibility in D1.... You can go D2 or D3 and still play in college after trying the pros but there are some serious knocks on that too.

No one really looks at D2/D3 players much. D2 only has 2.3 scholarships and no former pro-player is going to get any. D3 has no athletic scholarships at all. You would be just playing college ball for fun.

There isn't any security in pro-ball. Try living on 1250/month ... try raising a family on it .... If you go right out of H.S., you may lose your only true guarantee for long term financial stability --- a good education.

 

A slight correction, NC. Division 2 programs are entitled to a total of 9 scholarships per team, as opposed to 11.7 at the D1 level. However, it's not unusual for programs...at either the D1 or D2 levels...to lack sufficient funds to provide all of the scholarships permitted. As a result, you'll find some schools that divide a very small number of scholarships among a roster that likely averages 25-35 players. For this reason, players (and their parents) should never look to a baseball grant-in-aid as a primary reason for college aspirations.

 

Thanks for the correction on the total # of scholarships ....

Especially since they divide that money among 32-40 people.

 

My question to all that consider not signing professionally is can you not return to school after you are done playng professional baseball? I think metro is trying a little too hard to push kids to 4 year schools, especially Charlotte, and seems to have a little anger towards professional baseball as well as showcase teams, etc. My words of advice to any high school player is this, do what you feel will make you the happiest. If playing professional baseball is what you have always dreamed of then go play if you are drafted. If you don't feel you have a career in professional baseball, then you should attend school. You never know what may happen with baseball players these days, for example, the Ward kid in kannapolis who attends Gardner Webb. If a scout would have drafted him look what he would be doing in professional baseball. Instead, he must waste two more years at school, hoping he doesn't get injured, so he can be drafted then. And, by the way, Charlotte missed out on him too. What if a player like him were drafted out of high school when they are throwing 88 mph, which is a possibility. Then he signs and his velocity jumps up to 93, 94 mph, much like Ward did. Would you say he made a mistake by signing? What if he signed and didn't get any better? Then he stays in pro baseball for a few years, lets say two to three. If he had not signed he would be done with school or almost done and would never have played professional baseball. The experience of playing professional baseball is one that the player that signed will have forever, but the one that didn't sign can never have. Therefore, I can not see why a person would not sign to play professional baseball. You can go to school when you are 100 and get a degree if you want to, but I don't see many of those people playing professional baseball. And the last thing is this, Metro, you say a kid should go attend a 4 year school and sign after their junior year. Why? Isn't that ruining the purpose you are saying for going to a 4 year school? If your intent is to get a degree, then you shouldn't sign after you are a junior either, you should finish your degree then hope to get signed, that's the whole purpose of attending that school isn't it? So you will have "something to fall back on."

 

Well, in the Ward kids situation, I think he stands to get paid a lot more in 2-3 years than he would have gotten if he'd been drafted and signed last year. That has to be a factor when a kid is deciding which route to take, college or pro. If you're drafted low, and are offered like a 5 or 6 thousand $ signing bonus, the odds aren't in your favor of lasting more than a couple years (that is not to say that it won't happen). Say he gets released after 2 years. Well, if he'd gone to college, he'd still have 2 more years of college ball left, and then a possibly a chance at the pros, not to mention a degree. Of course, if you get offered whatever the Hayes guy from Rowan got last year, you'd almost be crazy not to take it. Dreams are great, but sooner or later for most of us reality is going to set in. Kids have to consider their futures, and the possibility that they aren't going to be able to secure their futures through baseball. Also, going back to school as soon as the baseball ends may not be an option, if you happen to get married and start having kids and mortgages and so on if you weren't a bonus baby. Naturally, there's the financial situation of the kid's family at the time he's drafted to consider, as well.

 

The guy at the local D-II college down here (Belmont Abbey) gets 3 full scholarships.

 

That ought to pay for books and meal money for 25-30 guys.

 

Another option to be considered is the Junior College route. If a player is drafted out of high school and chooses not to go pro they can go to a JUCO. At the JUCO they can take the "core courses" required by all D1-D3 schools and still play ball. After their freshman year they can be drafted again (if they haven't signed with their original draft team). If they don't sign after their freshman year the process repeats for their sophomore year. If drafted or undrafted after the sophomore year they can then transfer to a D1-D3 school and be eligible for the draft after both their junior and senior years of college baseball.

The JUCO route covers the player from both directions. They can get a college education if they are not drafted (or want to improve their draft position) and still they are eligible for the draft for the longest period of time.

Coach 44, don't baseball contracts carry a standard provision that covers the cost of college, for a specified amount of time and money, if a player does not make it in the minors and wants to return to college?