Early Predictions

top 5?

yeah i agree providence and south will battle for the sw4a the south has the edge b/c they're loaded with pitching...

does anybody have an early top 5 list of highschools this year in the state with in mind returning players and/or new players that have come in?

 

Interesting comment.

 

Ok, here is my early take on the Charlotte area. I haven't done my research yet on the surrounding counties and it's really difficult to get information out of the Raleigh and Coastal areas

Independence will have to overcome a few key losses to graduation. Replacing Zac Farry, Jeff Rockett and Jonathan McMahon will be difficult. (I'm forgetting the name of the OF who graduated right now ... all will play college ball). Indy will still be an excellent defensive ball team and hit very well. Marc Nicholson and Aaron Bray will provide a great offensive punch at the top of the lineup. They need to polish up a couple more arms to go with Robby Bray on the bump. If they get one more quality starter, they will be a handful for anyone to beat. It's very hard to pick against them. No team in the western part of the state can play "small-ball" with them. They have excellent coaching and should be the favorite to repeat as "City Champions". Robby Bray has had an excellent summer and has picked up velocity on his FB to go with that hammer-curve he throws. (T#1-Meca-8)

South Meck lost Kyle Shelton at SS, Kevin Spain on the bump, Brandon Stafford behind the plate and Elliot Arrington at 1st and Clayton Erickson in the OF but they still have most of their pitching and a ton of offense returning. The key to South Meck taking over the top spot will be consistency. They will murder weak pitching, making them a conference leader and should be strong enough on the mound to beat the good teams head-to-head. They need to turn the corner and learn to win the big games. South Meck may field a starting 9 that will all commit to play in college by spring time. They will definitely be solid. (#1-SW4A)

North Meck lost 2 key contributors in 1B/OF Tristan Hollar and 2B Blake Eppes, but are returning everyone else, including all of their pitching and team speed. North will get on base (count on Cavasinni for that), but in the past, they have sometimes struggled to score runs. If the bats get consistent this year, they should be very hard to handle. They have 3 pitchers who have committed D1 (Rosenbaum, UNC-Charlotte; Pierce, UNC-Charlotte; Porter-Elon) and a couple more pitchers that are being looked at very hard by D2-D3 programs. A couple of extremely good bats are coming up and they have possibly the best sleeper player in the county in Damian Manzetti. He can hit the ball a ton and has been clocked at 93 on the mound but is still very raw around the edges. If he's smoothed out since last year, they could take it all. (T#1-Meca-8)

Butler has lost a few key players. One of their top returning players is Kevin Glass, who throws very well. KG will keep Butler in some games with his arm and bat, but he'll need some serious help. At times last year, Butler started a very young left side of the IF, which hurt them. If they improve their defense, they could win some ball games, but right now, they are on the outside looking in. (#6-SW4A)

Providence has lost a ton of players. Providence has a deep program and had a strong JV team last season, but they may be a year away from competing for the top spot again. The quality of players at Providence will keep them in the top tier of the conference, but they need the dominating starter to keep down the scoring threats of the other teams. They should do well, but not great this coming year, going about 10-4 in conference play. (#2-SW4A)

Hopewell was hit hard by graduation. They have a very good nucleus of young players that should be rising out of JV ball, so they may rebound quickly. The duties on the mound will tell how far they can go. They have one of the best LHH in the region in 1B/P Dusty White. They have very good team speed in the OF and will field a solid team defensively. Though this looks to be a down year for Hopewell, they should be in the run for a state-playoff spot and will be a threat in the conference tournament. Like Providence, they won't ever get too far away from the top of the heap. (#4-Meca-8)

East Meck was hit hard. These teams may all have a decent record and may be competitive for a top-3 spot, but may not have the depth to make any run in post-season. This will be a young team, riding the ability of Taylor Bryant. Last year, East rode Ben Buchanan very sucessfully. If Taylor can bring the young players along, they will be scary by the conference tournament, but they are probably a year away. (#4-SW4A)

Central Cabarrus, to most people, will a sleeper team in the area this coming spring. Sorry - wrong. Central will be an extremely solid club and a very difficult team to beat for anyone. Towards the end of last season, the IF was all freshman/sophomores on varsity. With their early experience, they should come on strong, particularly towards the end of the season. Central will always hit the ball. They have one of the best hitting programs in the state for that. I expect that they will take a solid #3 spot in the conference, edging out Hopewell and would not be surprised if they pull an upset during the season against either North or Indy. (#3-Meca-8)

Myers Park was young last year. They lost two key players behind the plate, but should be Ok. I don't know if they can make a run, but they could play a spoiler role. Jeremy Mathis is the best kept secret in the SW4A. Outstanding competitor who will be pitching somewhere at the next level. Myers Park, with some consistent play could end up #3 in the conference with a trip to the states this coming year. (#3-SW4A)

Olympic lost a lot to graduation and now have been hit by the injury bug. After a solid campaign last year, I expect them to slip towards the bottom of the SW4A. They are well coached and have a lot of pride, but are short on players. (#5-SW4A)

West Meck has struggled the past couple of years, but look to have a solid nucleus to build around. Team depth and the depth of the pitching staff will be the telling points. West Meck is a team in desperate need of more speed. They have difficulty manufacturing runs, so they may not be competitive against the top teams, but will still be very solid against the middle of the road teams. If you don't bring your "A" game, West can beat you. For teams that finished in the bottom half of their conference last year, West Meck is possibly the most dangerous to face. (#5-Meca-8)

Vance is hard to read. They keep loosing players and last year dropped their JV team. They lost a lot to graduation and don't have a pipe-line anymore to build from. I don't expect a solid year from them. They could end up near the bottom of the Meca-8. (#8-Meca-8)

Harding plays hard and is well coached. They have a tradition over there, but haven't had the players over the past few years. What they do have is power at the plate. If any of their arms develop, they could give people trouble. (#6-Meca-8)

The bottom tier teams in the city: Garinger, Waddell and West Charlotte.
Of these 3 teams, West Charlotte has a young lefty who shows promise if they don't ride him into the ground. He's definitely got an idea on the mound, but is very raw. Surprisingly, WC can hit .... pretty well, but they struggle defensively. If they can get more consistent play, they could climb out of the cellar this year. I predict that they won't finish last in the Meca-8. Garinger and Waddell will bring up the bottom of the SW4A, but Waddell has the edge on the basis of player recruiting alone. They will get more athletes.

 

Give us your Top 5 list. We can all argue the points, strengths and weaknesses. Thats how you build a list!!

4A Teams to consider:
NW4A: Keep an eye on South Caldwell. They were young last year, but look to be about ready.
SW4A: South Meck has to be included, but the other teams aren't ready for a Top-5 list
Meca-8: Independence and North Meck must be considered on a Top-5 list.
CPC: RJ Reynolds may be the most solid team in that area.
Metro-6: It's hard to pick against North Forsyth every year.
Eastern Teams:
JH Rose: "Click-Click" ... they just reloaded.
New Bern: Possibly the best pitcher in the state in Warren.
Hoggard: My preseason pick for #1 in the state.
Raleigh area: These guys just seem to beat up on each other ... It's hard for an outsider to pick up there. They have some great teams this year in the Raleigh area.

 

homerun4,
is that the order you are picking them. or just random order to describe them??? :huh:

 

i agree with the independence comments, someone will have to step up and lead that team and lead by example. i know that the work will be put in and they will not settle with a mediocre season. they will need some pitching help to follow up the bray brothers they will be fine once a leader emerges from one of the 10 seniors. every team has a leader who plays the game with a passion and admiration that makes everyone else on the team better, whos it gonna be?

North Meck- rarely do you ever see a pitching rotation like this one. you have rosenbaum and porter delivering every week, and one of the strongest closers in pierce. its very rare that you see a pitching staff that is set up with a closer, most teams pitch inning by inning if you know your starters can get you through at least 5 strong a game, and you have a closer able to pitch 2+ innings theres not much to worry about during the course of a game

 

Central Cabarrus lost 2 of the sophomores to transferThe hitting program is not what it seems. They screw up more hitters than not.
When you mess with a guys swing when he is hitting .450, before you know it he was down to .275. Central's success has alot to do with players coming from good summer programs.

 

The Raleigh area will be hard to figure out. The CAP 6 4A will be tight.

* Wakefield will be strong with Dowdy(ECU) on the mound. Halford at SS(UNC-W) and Zach Quate(Carolina Cubs-fall team) at 3rd and on the bump.

* Wake Forest will have Drew Taylor(NC State) on the bump and playing CF. Throw in another 5 returning starters plus Coach Austin Smithwick(Impact baseball) and they will be good.

* Millbrook- Always good. BJ Dale(one of the top 06 arms) and Sam Brown(the other 06 arm) will be tough. Put Jacob Allen at SS and you have the makings of a fine team.

Fuquay Varina- Always good. Grayson Evans and Frankie lewis will provide plenty of Offense. They need to find some arms though.


*****The exciting thing will be watching the Pitchers...........especially Dowdy and Taylor. I fully expect both to be bringing 90 Plus heat and outstanding off speed stuff. Can't wait for that match up of rival schools 6 miles apart.

 

my top 5

here's my top 5 in the state

1. JH Rose
2. Hoggard
3. South Meck
4. North Meck
5. tie: Christian/Indy

i'm expecting some criticism, but thats how i see it, haha

 

Hmmm... Christian doesn't play 4A public school ball. It's hard to mix/match schools out of conference since they rarely start their best pitchers if the non-conference game is sandwiched between two conference matchups. An early season matchup also doesn't tell you very much about a team, particularly if it's still cold. The bats don't warm up until mid-April and pitchers struggle in the cold, damp spring air.

Christian looks to be one year away to me. Next year, they will be better, but this year, they will struggle more than usual.

If you want to mix up the schools, regardless of Level of play, you have to have TC Roberson in the Top-5 ... maybe as high as #1.

Other Observations:
1. South Stokes (1A) may slip a drop in the ranks loosing Timmy Smith on the mound, but Nic Conaway will be back with his rocket arm. You can get bye with fewer top players on a team in the 1A ranks. It's always fun to hear about Forbush and how they are "going to win it all"... I guess one of these years, like the Red Sox, they will.

2. Simply because you don't need as many top players, Albemarle (1A) may make a run at South Stokes this year. It all depends on how strong Bradley Holt comes on.

3. Ashbrook (3A) lost too much to be considered the top contender out of the west in 3A. They may still win their conference but will have to battle with South Point (but South Point has to learn to score more).

4. West Rowan (3A) was decimated by graduation. Do NOT expect a return to the state championship game. The NPC this year will run instead through AL Brown and NW Cabarrus. Brown has the edge.

5. Hickory (3A) may challenge for the top-5 in the west. They have a nice nucleus, but may still be one player short.

6. Never count out Tuscola (3A). They have a strong program and tradition up there.

7. It will be interesting to see if East Rutherford (2A) can maintain their tradition of quality next season. To me, the 2A ranks are the hardest to predict. A single player can have a huge impact, but you still need a complete team. West Henderson may be in for a bit of a slide in the 2A ranks.