Interesting article in N&O today....

Yes, he has one week before the draft. But do you honestly think they won't get a deal done before then? One of them will blink.

 

right... i wouldnt take a chance of going thru the draft again next year ..not sitting where he is now... i still think its all greed...

 

:xyzthumbs:

 

Upton

I agree with all the posts above, he will never play at Louisburg and if he does, he is receiving some of the worst advice ever given to a player.

The thing that really bothers me about this whole situation is that Upton (and other young players) want to be paid like big leaguers when in reality all they have done is show that they were outstanding high school players. Not to cast stones, but I have seen Upton play and while he has very good tools (very fast, very strong arm, very good hitter, good power, average defensive skills) I would not go as far as to say he is the best thing to come along in recent history. In fact, there was a kid out of Raleigh (Josh Hamilton) that actually had a better set of tools than Upton and we all know how this sad story is playing out. I understand that he wants to be paid the money that a 1st pick deserves and I don't blame him, but to miss valuable instruction time squabbling over a contract seems short-sighted to me.


My point is that $4.5 million is a ton of money for an 18 year old kid. If Upton was to take this money and then perform up to his ability, he will no doubt be a big league player in 3-4 years. If he performs at the big league level, it is reasonable to say he could make another 75+ million dollars over his career. I just don't get it unless he lacks the confidence that he will ever become a big league player.

Note to Justin: $4.5 million dollars means you are set-up for life financially - even with the most conservative investment plan.

 

Good post jh

 

Agreed to all of the above. Sign and start playing. Look at all the other players you graduated with and see what they are making and what kind of signing bonuses they are getting? Also look back at his brother's situation. Did it help him by holding out? I don't think it did. Not that it hurt him, but it didn't help missing a season then playing (at least defensively) the way he has. Good luck Justin, but your teammates will be a little apprehensive when you do sign if you don't go ahead and get it done.

As for playing at Louisburg for a year, he can do that but why? That would make no sense to pay to go to school and play baseball while turning down 4.5 million dollars to play and not go to school. That makes no sense. Also some might say he'll go to Louisburg for free, well if he does that I feel sorry for the players that must be losing their scholarship so he can come to school for free. If that happens Upton should give them their money for their school after he gets his millions. Why would Louisburg have left over scholarship money for him this late in the year? If they had that money why had they not given it to some of their other signees since they will be coming to school. I figure this is all a work by the Upton's and they are just using Louisburg to bluff Arizona. I bet he never attends a class even if he's not signed. It just doesn't make sense.

And Braves, I agree about Maybin, but I think he and Vlad would be a pretty tight race. He can run for a big guy, but I do think Maybin will be more polished when he gets to the same point as Vlad is, but maybe not as talented.

 

Didn't Loewen do the same thing by going to Chipola and got 4.8 million the next year rather than the original 4 million he asked for. It has been done successfully in the past.

Regardless, it is worth a shot for Louisburg. Tons of exposure for the other guys on the team if he does show up. Still a heck of a team if he doesn't. Doesn't bother any of the players on the team from what I could tell the other day. Most think it would be awesome to have him. Frankly, not sure that Louisburg college has ever shown up on an ESPN.com story like they did last week.

BTW, doubt he is getting any baseball money. Not that he needed it from what I can tell. His family is very successful.

The problem is that MLB hasn't wised up to structured rookie payouts like the NBA and NFL have. That is why Maybin went 10th when he should have been a top 5 pick in a pure talent draft. Teams knew they couldn't afford him. It is why Bush got picked first last year and Weaver/Drew both dropped. MLB needs to go to a structured payout so that the best players are chosen first and there is very little negotiation.

 

Louisburg

The Loewen example you use has one big difference - he wasn't drafted #1. He supposedly was offered around 2.5 mil out of high school in Canada, but he didn't like the offer and decided to attend Chipola. After compiling a strong season at Chipola, he signed with Baltimore just before the deadline for a little over 4.0 mil. This kid rolled the dice hoping that Baltimore would sign him, but if they didn't, he hoped to improve his draft position by performing well against college talent. At the end of the day, he proved that he was worth that extra money because he had been now been tested by college hitters and proved he could still dominate. Another big difference - Loewen is a 6'6" pitcher that throws in the mid 90's and not a position player.

A quick question. If Upton doesn't sign with Arizona, do you think that another team would take him #1 next year. I would guess not. In fact, he could drop considerably in the draft even if he had a great year at Louisburg because of signability issues. This could cost him much more than the 500,000 - 750,000 he wants now - i.e. refer to the fact that Cameron dropped because of the same issue this year.

I know it is easy for me to sit at my desk and offer advice because I am not in his shoes. However, if he is as good as many believe, his long-term earning potential will make the amount they are squabbling about now seem small.

Good luck to Justin and good luck to Louisburg. I will be following the team either way because I know several players that are part of the program.

 

Very good points JH! Exactly what I was thinking. As for Wolfpac, I respect your point of view, but I find it absolutely absurd that you would try to defend what he's doing. This whole story is based upon greed and it aggravates me to see an 18 year old kid being led this way. I honestly do not think Upton is pushing this. I think its either his parents or his advisor making this decision. I know when I played baseball I had a dream of playing major league baseball. All the time I had that dream, I dreamed of "playing", not of getting paid a huge bonus so I would be set for life. Of course we all want to make as much money as possible, but sometimes just the love of what you do should account for something. I'm sure Justin had a dream at one time too, and maybe he should consider that when making this decision. As for my dream, I wasn't as lucky or talented as those that are given the opportunity to play, so I never had to make that decision. But if I did I can guarantee you I wouldn't be asking for a few hundred thousand more than the millions I was already offered. As for Louisburg, I said earlier that I don't blame them for taking him, but I wouldn't give him any money that was promised to someone else. They are getting exposure just like they got from Elijah Dukes a few years back, even more so now with Upton. I think it gets their name out there for people to see and that's a smart marketing move. As for the teammates, I'm sure they like having the number one pick say he's coming there too. That would be a great experience for anyone. But ask any of them if they would want their scholarship taken away to have him come to school there and see what they say. What about you Wolfpac, would you want the money promised to your son taken away from him so Upton can get even more money thrown in his pocket? You probably would be a little upset if that happened. I'm glad to hear that hasn't happened, to anyone's knowledge, so that's why I say its a smart move, if done correctly, by Louisburg. I just don't understand it, to be honest, and greed is the only way I can explain it to myself.

 

jh, Loewen was drafted #4 overall so not that big of a difference from #1. You are right that it was a 4 million deal. 3.2 in signing bonus and 800K for the years he will play. Still, they originally offered a 2.5 million deal and he got a 4 million deal. Upton has much higher upside than Loewen in the end and we know it didn't take long for his brother to reach the majors.

BTW, the Tigers pulled their offer from Maybin it was reported in the Detroit Free Press today.

Coach, the MLB draft creates these situations by the way it is set up IMO. NBA and NFL (to a lesser degree but much better than MLB) don't have these issues because of the way their draft is set up with structured payouts.

"Wolfpac, would you want the money promised to your son taken away from him so Upton can get even more money thrown in his pocket?"

That's an ignorant comment because my brother is playing at Louisburg this year and NO money was taken away from him at all. If you don't know that is happening, why would you mention it. Seems irresponsible to me! Neither have I heard it being taken away from any other players. Braves can verify that I have a brother at Louisburg BTW.