MLB Draft starts today: Rounds 1-50

Louisburg/NCSU

Even though he isn't from NC, he has been a huge part of a NC college's success: Louisburg's Mike Finocchi got drafted in the 14th round by Cleveland (#424 overall).

Also, Woods Fines and Marcus Covington were both D&F's from last year who played at Louisburg this year and both signed before May 31st. Congrats to both of them as well!

Also, from NCSU:

Joey Devine: Round 1 to the Atlanta Braves #27 overall
Aaron Bates: Round 8 to the Florida Marlins #246 overall
Dionisio Muyco: Round 8 to the Chicago Cubs #250 overall

 

Jeffrey Moore, UNC-Wilmington, RHP, Pick #513 Round #17

 

Ronald Hill, UNC-Wilmington, RHP, Pick #517 Round #17

 

Eric Brown, Wingate, RHP, Pick #539, Round #18, to NY Mets

 

Day #1 is over ... 560 selections ... 940 to go.....

 

Who were the surprise picks from NC?

 

The surprise may have to wait until today ....

... Perfect Game had identified about 20 players who, they believed, had talent enough to be potential picks within the top-10 rounds. As always, the issue of signability is probably the make/break issue for the draft. If a player is believed to want more money than the round/pick# would warrant, then he may be passed over for a lesser talent who they believe that they can get into camp. A perfect example of this was Justin Bristow (Virginia). He was projected as a potential first round pick based on talent. His name wasn't called at all as signability issues probably had teams worried they wouldn't be able to get him into camp. After the end of the First Round supplimental picks, most teams had probably scratched him from their boards as being unsignable from that point on. He was never picked. The two players in NC that I had personally picked as being first day level talent (Top-10 rounds) were Jeremy Synan and Drew Taylor. Both are great players, but both are signed ACC. Once you get down past the 5th round, the signing bonuses that are normally associated with that round are probably worth less than their scholarships.

There was another trend in the draft yesterday that surprised me. There seemed to be an emphasis on College Seniors as opposed to Juco players, HS players or College Juniors, particularly after round #5. College players dominated the draft (except for the top pick). Each year, the trend seems to shift further that way with more-more reliance on the college player.

College seniors are completely out of options. If you look at the signing bonuses from previous years for college seniors taken in the 7th round (for example) compared to a HS player, the signing bonus difference is huge (150,000 for a HS versus 10,000 for a college senior). There is no arguing that the college senior is closer to helping out a pro team, so it's almost a no brainer.

Back in the early 80's there was a perception that college would over-work pitchers and ruin their arms. This notion has been disproved now. It's not believed to be as critical teams to grab pitchers out of HS. They can let them mature in college instead of in the minors ... and it's cheaper in the long run.

Most draft people will also admit that there is less difference between the 100th and 500th ranked prospect than there is between the 25th and the 50th. The organizations weigh these prospects differently than Prospects Plus because of a teams emphasis on the importance of particular tools. NC is chock full of excellent college prospects, but, we said all year, the number of pro prospects weren't nearly as high. It's hard to convince a kid going to East Carolina to bypass college for a 14th round pick and a limited signing bonus.

There should be some DFE's chosen today. I'm very interested in what's going to happen today. Right now, some of the draft is based on organizational needs versus talent. There are some VERY talented young men still available out there.

If a player doesn't have "options", they are much easier to pick on the 2nd day also. There are some "Bag of Chips and a Coke" players out there in this state (guys who would sign for virtually nothing, just to get a shot). On day #2, there may also be some picks of "insurance players". Guys like Bristow who were passed on the first day. For example, if the high round picks won't sign for a particular organization, these are the guys they will make a run at and throw much higher bucks at.

Finally: The draft will run 50 rounds ... each of these teams (well maybe not the Yankees) have a budget that they are projecting by round. If you look at Arizona who has a lot of expensive picks already in tow, they may have needs in their Rookie team for particular positions. They've done all that they can afford to do except round out their needs in the last 10 rounds very cheaply. They may do a lot of DFE's, since no money leaves the organization on a DFE this year.

Each team has a different philosophy and a strategy. It's impossible to predict, only guess. Look at the Braves ... after a decade of taking HS pitchers in round #1, they reached into NC State and took a college reliever (anyone who has watched the Braves this season can figure that one out).

 

Day #2: Rounds 19 thru 50:

Lots of Technical glitches today ... the Draft Central which feeds the teams and their selections seems to be down ... every player is being noted by hand right now ....

.... lets go back to the 1960's ....

Remember: If a team decides not to select any player in a particular round, then they cannot "re-enter" the draft later. They are done. If you have your dollars spent (think lower budget teams now) then a bunch of otherwise "unsignable" picks may be used up just marking space.

Sometimes a flyer will be taken on a HS player who is signed with a college (think about Justin Bristow from Virginia who was a borderline first rounder). If they have trouble signing their 2nd/3rd rounder, they may come back and make a high offer, even though he might be taken in the 25th round or later.

College seniors may dominate other teams draft because of cost.

This is the day where a lot of "less accomplished students" are drafted out of HS. They don't have all of the options available to them, so they are less expensive.

Only thing predictable about Day #2 is that it can't be predicted.

Finally: HS Pitchers who have signed with 4-year colleges may be drafted today as DFE's (Draft and Follows) and the MLB team try to convince them to go to a JUCO instead. Then, if everything pans out, they would be signed next May. If you head off to a 4 year college, you can't be drafted again until after you turn 21 or finish your junior year of college (whichever comes first).

 

Richard Shefka, Coastal Carolina, RHP, Pick #594, Round #20, to Washington

 

Congrats to Zack:

I thought Zack Ward would have been a bit higher up.. #92 3rd round Reds
I guess he has a few decisions to make now.. I'm sure he will make the best of whats been delt.
Maybe play his last year at GW.