NCHSAA 4A Baseball Playoff Power Rankings 2007-2013

Since high school baseball season is coming soon and I had some spare time this weekend, I decided to create a formula and do some research on the most successful 4A baseball programs in NC since the playoffs expanded in 2007. This ranking is based solely on postseason success of 4A programs in the state of NC.


My formula is simply: First, you find the win-lost percentage for each team. (Please note, winning a regional or championship series count as one win and no losses, just as losing one of these series only counts as one loss.) Take that win-loss percentage times 100. This is the base number for each team Then subtract 5 each year the team did not make it into the playoffs from 2007-2013. Now add only one of the following for each year this happened: State Champ +25, Regional Champ +18, Sectional Champ +10, District Champ +5. (IMPORTANT NOTE: If you win the State Championship you only add 25 points, not the total of them all for that year.)


Here are the top 10 successful playoff 4A schools since 2007. The first number listed is their state playoff success rank followed by their playoff success score as determined by my formula. Highlights and lowlights are also posted. Record in 4A playoffs only from 2007-2013 listed last.


10.Holly Springs 89.0
2011 State Champs, I think the school open in 2008, so they did not make the playoffs in 2007 and had first round losses in 2008 & 2009. 11-5 in playoffs.


9. East Forsyth 89.7
2010 Western Regional Champs, Missed playoffs in 2013. 12-6 in playoffs.


8. Richmond County 91.7
2012 & 2013 Final 4, Have not missed the playoffs over this 7 year period. 14-7 in playoffs.


7. North Davidson 92.7
2007 & 2009 Final 4, Missed playoffs in 2012. 16-6 in playoffs.


6. Middle Creek 94.7
2012 State Champs, Have not missed the playoffs over the past 7 years. 11-6 in playoffs.


5. Ashley 96.4
2007 Eastern Regional Champs, Missed playoffs in 2010. 13-6 in playoffs.


4. TC Roberson 101.9
2011 Western Regional Champs, missed 4A playoffs in 2007-2009 because they were 3A. 15-4 in playoffs.


3. South Caldwell 105.0
2007 State Champs, Have not missed the playoffs over the past 7 years. 14-6 in playoffs.


2. JH Rose 110.0
2008 State Champs, 2009 Final 4, Missed playoffs in 2013. 15-5 in playoffs.


1. Ardrey Kell 120.7
2009 State Champs, 2008 Western Regional Champs, Have not missed the playoffs over the past 7 years. 16-6 in playoffs.


Some things of note:
There are 5 teams from the east and 5 from the west. Feel bad for Holly Springs and TC Roberson as HSHS was hurt because it was not open in 2007 and TCRHS was 3A for the first 3 years. I did not forget about powerhouse schools like Providence or Fuquay-Varina, their power rankings were not good enough to be in the top 10. (Remember this is based on playoff success alone and Providence is only 8-7 in the playoffs over the last 7 years and Fuquay-Varina missed the playoffs twice in the past 7 years.) Both would be in the top 20 if I listed that many.


Finally, I do not think there are many surprises here. I'd be happy to share more information if anyone is interested, just post your question and I'll answer when I can. I have not attempted this for 1A, 2A, or 3A. It took several hours to compile the data and multiple attempts to configure a formula that I thought was the fairest way to measure playoff success.

 

Interesting information. Not a bad way of assigning points.

It was interesting to see 5 from each side of the state. If points are assigned for each round then I guess the balance would be there.

I know the east has pretty much dominated the 4A state championships since 2000 with the majority of the participants coming from the Triangle area.

Good information though.

Cannot wait until the season starts, great time of the year.

 

I will give you some Stats from Fuquay-Varina since 2000

29-14 record in playoffs Since 2000
1 State Title
3 Eastern Regional Champs
Lost the the eventual State Champs 6 times