Odds of high school players going pro: A look at the data

TBRockers,

I found this Yahoo article below interesting and wanted to share it with all of you.

Jeff Schaefer
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East Coast Prospects
Regional Director, USA Baseball NTIS Mid Atlantic
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Odds of high school players going pro: A look at the data

By J.M. Soden, Yahoo! Contributor Network Thursday, Mar 3, 2011

You may have seen the NCAA commercials that claim just about all of their student-athletes will be turning pro in something other than sports. It's not just a catchy slogan, but also a reality. With players leaving school early at alarming rates, the NCAA is trying to educate young athletes on the importance of an education. As part of this plan, the NCAA has posted data on the probability of a high school athlete playing in college and eventually turning pro in sports with major professional leagues. The data may not come as a surprise to many, but can be quite humbling to young athletes who see college as an express lane to the pros.

The study illustrates just how elite professional athletes are within their own sports. In comparing men's basketball, women's basketball, football, baseball, men's ice hockey and men's soccer, the data shows that the "easiest" sport to turn pro in is baseball, with approximately 0.44% or 1 out of every 225 high school participants reaching the professional ranks. By comparison, the most difficult sport to turn professional in is basketball. Both men's and women's basketball place about 0.03% of all high school players into a professional basketball league, with most playing overseas in Europe. That means that out of every 333 high school basketball players, only one will turn professional and chances are that won't be in the United States.

Even if high school athletes are unlikely to reach the professional ranks, an athletic scholarship can provide an excellent chance for a high quality education at little or no cost. Studies show that high school men's hockey players have a very high success rate at playing in college. In part this is due to the lack of high school hockey programs in the United States. However, with 10.8% of high school hockey players earning a chance to play in college, the odds are nearly triple those of basketball.

Overall, the numbers are quite staggering. In the six sports listed, there are approximately 854,200 high school senior athletes. Of those, approximately 44,000 or five percent will have roster spots waiting for them in college. Of those 44,000 student-athletes, only about 1,000 of them will get drafted into a professional sport, with 850 of those in either baseball or football.

While an athletic career is certainly achievable for a privileged few, the harsh reality is 99.883% of high school athletes who participate in sports with major professional leagues, will have to find ways to make a living outside of sports. When you stop to consider the data, it becomes quite clear as to why the NCAA continues to stress the value of a college education. Yet, even those fortunate enough to turn professional can value from a strong education. Professional athletic careers are often short-lived, and the skills developed in a college curriculum can help former athletes succeed even after their playing days are over.

 

What a timely article...very well said!

There is a lot to say about this article, but I'll wait for others to post their thoughts.

 

A few thoughts generated by Jeff's great post:

(1) It is often the case that a college baseball coach's first question of a recruited player is "what are your grades?" The obvious reason for the question is that most college baseball coaches have little, if any, leeway or influence in the Admissions Office; so, players with good grades make coaches' recruiting lives much easier.

However, the less obvious benefit of a college baseball coach's attention to grades is that, presumably, it'll help motivate a high school player to pay attention to the academic side of the equation. Successfully done, this not only makes the player much easier to recruit; but, it also makes the player better prepared to tackle the rigors of a college's academic curriculum once he gets there.

...and believe you me, there are few greater hills to climb than a college baseball player's first year in school; given the challenge of baseball and academics combined.

(2) The vast majority of college-bound baseball players become self-disciplined in order to succeed at one of the most demanding sports around. If they'll apply the same level of self-discipline to other basic challenges they face (like academics), they'll succeed at virtually every pursuit they choose; long after they've stopped playing baseball.

(3) The requirement that a college player at a 4-year program has to wait until after his 21st birthday to be drafted is a tremendous advantage to those players who aspire to both play professionally and receive their college degree. For most college players, this means that they will have put at least 3 academic years behind them before they turn pro.

When a player is considering turning pro out of high school, sometimes you hear it said that "college will always be there." Well, the statistics say otherwise.

Very few players who turn pro out of high school ever find their way to college. For this reason, an agreement to cover a retired player's college tuition is usually one of the first concessions offered by a major league club. They know that, statistically, it's highly unlikely that they'll ever have to make good on that one. It's considered a "throw-away" from the club's perspective.


Finally, a quick story; one told by Georgia Tech's Head Coach, Danny Hall:

A few years ago, Georgia Tech grad and major league shortstop Nomar Garciaparra stopped by one of Coach Hall's camps when Garciaparra's Boston Red Sox team was in Atlanta to play the Braves. At the camp's lunch, Coach Hall asked Garciaparra to say a few words to the campers.

Garciaparra stood before them and asked, "How many of you think I'm concerned about the day when I can no longer play professional baseball?" Virtually every camper's hand shot skyward.

Garciaparra smiled and said, "Hate to tell you; but, all of you who raised your hand are wrong. I never worry about the end of my playing days."

"Know why?" he went on. "Because I have a business degree from the Georgia Tech Institute of Technology; and, with the education received here, I have all kinds of options available to me; whether in or out of baseball."