Tri-9 Predictions

Does Panther Creek have a shot at that 5th spot if they upset Green Hope on Thursday?

 

Fired up?

I think JM15 is trying to get PC fired up!

If Lee County wins, they are in and there is no discussion.

If HS wins and PC loses (2-way tie with HS and LC), then HS is in as they would have beaten LC head-to-head twice at that point.

If HS and PC win (3-way tie), then Lee County is out as they would have lost to HS twice and split with PC.

But, given PC and HS winning, it gets complicated. HS and PC have also split head-to-head. Now it goes to record against the top.

So, if HS and PC win and if MC loses Friday, then PC is in, as PC would have a win over #1(GH) and HS would not.

If HS and PC win and if MC wins Friday, then PC has a win over #1 (GH) and HS has a win over #1 (MC). So HS-PC are still tied. Then we check head-to-head vs. FV. HS beat FV once, and PC did not (lost both times). So HS is in.

Clear as mud right?

 

Not at all. I've got my own team to worry about lol. PC has played hard and tough all year. Not that other teams aren't deserving, but that senior class at PC has earned atleast one game in the post-season with how competitive they've been this year.

 

Playoff

Not sure about the tie breaker scenerio. If HS wins against LC and PC should upset GH there is a three way tie for fifth. I do believe it goes head to head but that would involve all THREE teams head to head record. So..
HS is 3-1 (beating LC twice and split with PC).
LC is 2-2 (split with PC and two losses to HS)
PC is 2-2 (split with LC and split with HS).
So I would think HS is in but I would rather see a playoff game! Agree, that all teams have worked hard but it does look like PC was so close in so many games.
Going to be some great games tomorrow!

 

Also if Middle Creek loses Friday to apex then Fuquay and Middle creek have a play in game for the 2-3 seed

 

and if GH loses tomorrow and MC wins friday, then there will be a "playoff" game between GH/MC to determine 1 and 2 seed for playoffs.

This conference is tough. Whoever finishes 5th and sneaks in the playoffs has just as much of a chance to win a few in the playoffs as whoever finishes 1st.

 

I am not certain about the tie breaker formula but it seems to use playoff games to break ties and does not use record against top of conference.

If HS,LC and PC end up in a three way tie then you have to give it HS for having the best head to head record.

Still baseball to be played ths week and it looks like it will go down to the last game.

 

tiebreaking

I believe TG13 is right. I misread the tiebreaking rules which are below. If HS, PC, and LC end in a 3-way tie (that is, HS wins), it is HS as they would be 3-1 versus the other two, PC is 2-2 and LC would be 1-3. So it is either HS or LC for the last spot, winner take all. Sorry about that PC. I opened a door that wasn't there.

From https://www.nchsaa.org/intranet/dow...ode=getFile&elementID=6293&type=5&atomID=8297

TIEBREAKING PROCEDURE​

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: all parts of this procedure are mandatory. The steps should be followed in the order as they appear in the procedure.​

(A) DETERMINING CONFERENCE STANDINGS
These rules apply for determining the final regular season standings in any sport in which a conference awards its conference championship on the basis of regular
season competition.​

(1) The conference standings shall be determined on the basis of the percentage of confer​

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ence games won by each team at the end of the regular season, based on conference regulations and subject to the tiebreaking procedure which follows. The team finishing in first place shall be recognized as the conference champion; if a tie exists for first place, then conference co-champions, tri-champions, etc., shall be declared.
(2) If two or more teams have equal conference percentages at the end of the season, the team that has the edge in head-to-head competition will get the higher place in the standings. All conference games played against each other would count in the head-to-head competition.​

Examples: the intent is to break the tie by using the tied teams. If there is a four-way tie for first and Team A and Team B are 2-1 while Team C and Team D are 1-2, in games among the four of them, A and B would
be tied for first by virtue of their 2-1, with C and D tied for third. Then look at head-to-head between the two (A and B) to break that tie, and then between the other two (C and B) to break that remaining tie. Teams A, B and C are tied for fourth in the conference standings with identical records. In games among the three, A was 3-1, B was 2-2 and C was 1-3. The tie is broken; A is fourth, B is fifth and C sixth. ​

 

Scenarios simplifying in Tri-9

I understand I am wrong regarding how Tri-9 baseball settles ties. Not surprising as I am not an expert. However, the scenarios are simplifying as GH pulls out a 9-6 win at PC. Game very close all the way until the last inning, and then it became close again. However, with the win, GH becomes undisputed Tri-9 champs. The HS/LC game will decide the last spot for the play-offs

Given the competition this year, winning the Tri-9 is something for the GH kids to be proud of. There has been a lot of great talent at GH through the years, with many Div 1 scholarship players. However, it has been a long time since GH won the conference outright. The 2009 team, with five all-conference players who later all signed with Div 1 schools (1 was drafted by MLB) did not accomplish this, sharing their crown with MC. You have to go back to 2005 when GH last won the Tri-7 (as it was then) outright, going 19-8 on the season, with 4 D-1 players. I don't know if this team has that many superstars, but they played good defense and pitched better than expected the entire season. Timely hitting provided runs. Simply a good all-around team, even on the bench. Junior John Bradley came off the bench to hit a HR today, Senior Aaron Martschenko almost did the same, but wound up with a double as his shot fell just short. Congratulations to the Falcons and good luck to all of the other Tri-9 teams in the playoffs. To you seniors, best of luck in your next steps, whether it is playing (or coaching) or studying for what you will do in life. This has been a great season as a spectator, baseball at its best.

 

Congratulations are in order for Green Hope. Most picked them to be in the top 3 or 4 but I did not see anyone pick them to win the conference out right. Gilbert was pitcher of the year in the Tri-9 (maybe player of the year).

Conference was tough top down and games were highly contested and hard fought throughout the year.

Almost everyone picked FV to win the conference easily (was the only conference team to be ranked preseason), they had a talented senior laden team that in the end have to feel disappointed. Hard to say this about HS athletes but probably underachieved.

Middle Creek was picked to finish top 4 or 5 so Thompson's group finished higher and led the conference most of the season. Deep pitching staff and timely hitting was key all year.

Apex finished in the playoffs but their pitching duo was expected to be the class of the conference. While they were dominate at times they were up & down at others. Still a playoff spot awaits.

Holly Springs after a state title last year had to grow up and gain experience quickly this season. Second half of the season was much better than the first. Wantz proved to be the ace of their staff but did not get much run support all year. Question is can they finish strong tonight on the road and sneak into the playoffs.

Lee Cty has come on strong as of late and Durazo was a beast at times. Tonight's game with HS will be good one. Can they make the playoffs in their last season in the Tri-9.

AD, Cary & PC were very competitive this year. How many 1 run or 7th inning losses did PC have ? You have to believe if a couple of those games goes their way they would be in the playoffs.

Again congrats to GH.