Uh-Oh -- Dang It--- Please Don't !!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
750 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2009



LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PIVOT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH MAY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT
WEAKER LLVL CAA...RESULTING IN STEADY TO SLIGHTLY COOLING SFC TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SLOW COOLING AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR
POCKETS OF DIURNAL AND ELEVATION DEPENDANT FZRA DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. H5
HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SUPPORTING A SFC LOW ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TO TRACK NORTHEAST. AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM 5 TO 10 DEGREES. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER PW/S AND DEEPER LIFT.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS VALUES ABOVE FREEZING...FORECASTING A
COOL RAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN IS VERY LOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 0Z GFS SOLUTION CLOSES OFF THE H5 LOW OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY...ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS NEAR THE
MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. LLVL THICKNESSES
COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE 0Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED H5 LOW...KEEPING IT OVER THE ARKLATX AT
12Z TUES. USING HPC GUIDANCE...I WILL ADVERTISE CHC TO SCHC POPS FOR

 

no snow?

 

Yep--No Bueno !!

We play West Stanly next Wednesday (3-18) @ Piedmont 4:30 !!

Guru

 

OH NO! DANG IT!

It rained all night the day I left,
The weather it was dry.
It was so hot I almost
froze to death!
Suzanna, don't you cry!

Elmer Fudd, the 1st. singing weatherman