Verbal Commitments for 2005 Class

A quick bit of Math so people can understand. We are very fortunate in North Carolina due to the number of institutions of higher education that we have in the state. North Carolina alone has 17 D1 Colleges and Universities where South Carolina and Virginia combined have only 19.

The High School Baseball Web has published some National Statistics on the probability of playing beyond High School. Taking their numbers and extrapolating North Carolina out of the numbers (always chancy, but worthy of an interested look) reveals the following root comparison.

Probabilities of playing in College

Category, National Count, NC Count

• Student-Athletes-455,300 - - - 9,958
• H.S. Sr Athletes--130,100 - - - 2,845
• N.C.A.A Athletes-- 25,700 - - - 1,146
• NCAA Fresh Plyrs--- 7,300 - - - - 325
• D-1 Freshmen Pos-- 2,590 - - - - 150
• D-2 Freshman Pos-- 1,993 - - - - -80
• D-3 Freshman Pos-- 2,708 - - - - -95
• % HS to N.C.A.A.--- 5.6% - - - 11.5%
• %Fall Commit(est)--- 10% - - - - 19%

Assumptions: Number of NC players playing Out of State equals number of incoming freshmen playing in state. This is probably off, due to the propensity of some NC colleges to look further afield for their players historically (I’m thinking of Wake as an example, but Davidson comes to mind also). If that holds, the true percentage of NC players who advance to play NCAA ball will be closer to 8.6%, but still exceed the National Norm.

Juco’s were not considered in the Calculation. If included, approximately 15% of NC graduating seniors will continue on to play beyond HS.

Percentage of HS to Pro baseball is 0.5% nationally, which includes Florida, Texas and California. Percentage of HS to Pro baseball in NC is historically lower, averaging closer to a 0.2% which is statistically insignificant (except to the players involved).

 

My uncommitted team (position players)

If I had to build a team from the players who are currently not committed anywhere, you could still have an absolute power-house:

1B: Greg Munoz, Tuscola
2B: Shane Thompson, Hoggard
SS: John Conway, South Central
3B: Garrett Bullock, JH Rose
LF: DJ Mitchell, North Forsyth
CF: Cameron Maybin, TC Roberson
RF: Marc Nicholson, Independence

You would be hard pressed to find a much better hitting OF than this one, even if you included all of the players who have committed. Nice combination of power/speed. The Infield can all hit and has great speed also. It's a good thing these guys are spread over different high schools (for the rest of the state, it's good that is).

 

Has anyone heard an update about:

1. Will Davis, North Stanly
2. Brandon York, West Wilkes

?????

These are two of my favorite catchers to watch. Davis can mash (but I would bet he's still tied up in football right now).

 

Come on Mountain folks:

Franklin and Owen should be pretty good this year. They look to have a decent nucleus to build from.

Franklin has Brown, Crawford and Savak returning and Owen has Hensley, Curry, Ogle and Perry. They look good on paper, are the good in person?

Is Pisgah going to be decent?

 

My over/under number for the fall commitments is 62. (That's about 19% of the total number of NC players I expect to committed before college starts next fall).

My current count is 50 (1 unpublished as of yet). We may exceed the 62. It appears to be a down year in SC statewide for baseball so there may be lots of opportunities to play "south of the border" too.

 

Franklin will only be as good as their pitching. They don't have the offense to compete with the the likes of TC Roberson. If Crawford and Savaiko have good senior seasons then they will be tough, but both have been inconsistent to this point. Look for Erwin and Tuscola to fight it out for the final playoff spot in the MAC. Owen does have a good nucleus and should be the favortite to win the Western Highlands 2A conference. West Henderson is young, but talented, and should challenge Owen for the title. Don't know much about Pisgah, but hear they should be pretty good.

 

In the WHC, Owen should win the conference if Hensley stays healthy. He will carry that team. West Henderson and North Henderson will be right there though should Owen slip. North has a couple of quality upperclassmen (Levi Wright) and should do well. West is young again this year and will most likely start 3 sophs and a freshman. Not typical underclassmen though. West is loaded in the 9th and 10th grades and could dip deeper in that talent pool if upperclassmen don't perform. Look for an announcement soon on Spencer Linn from West. Pisgah is always competitive and will be this year also. Their big question mark will be depth. Pisgah will have to play all their games away from home this year due to their field being destroyed from floods.

 

Yet another:

Aaron Bray, IF, Independence to UNC-Charlotte 49ers.

Yet another great pickup for Charlotte. They've had a great signing summer. Aaron is one of the best contact hitters in the region with surprising consistency and power. He's going to do great!!!

Way to go :applause: :applause: :applause:

 

Aaron Bray to UNCC

Congrats to Aaron!! He is one of the backbone players at Indy and has been a true asset for the Megastars this summer and fall. He loves the game, works hard at it and is fun to be around. His parents, Keith & Debbie, along with younger brother Robbie are a super family and will be a great fit with the other "local talent" families recently recruited by UNCC. Kudos to the entire Bray clan!

 

I would like to offer my congratulations to Aaron and his family. They are super people and I will enjoy going to watch Aaron play at UNCC. Good job, Aaron!